Modeling of Forest Dynamics on Barro Colorado Island: Testing Grand Theories and Identifying Fundamental Mechanisms

By encoding explicit mechanisms, process-based models test our ability to explain observed phenomena. As the site of the first ForestGEO and 50-ha plot globally, located in a highly diverse and dynamic tropical forest, Barro Colorado Island (BCI) has naturally been a testbed for grand theories seeking to explain forest structure and dynamics, including the size distribution of trees, successional dynamics, and the rich diversity of cooccurring species and growth strategies. This chapter reviews how research using process-based forest models has helped us to identify and understand potential mechanisms underpinning these phenomena at BCI. During the lifetime of the BCI plot, size-based successional models have developed into rich, efficient simulators that are able to capture the structure of the forest and the effect of disturbances and begin to explain the diversity of growth forms observed.