The Forests of Barro Colorado Island and the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity

Neutral theory in ecology came to prominence with the publication of Stephen Hubbell ’s 2001 book, in which applications to the forests of Barro Colorado Island (BCI) were central. But the roots of the theory go back decades earlier. In this review, I chart the history of neutral ecological theory starting from 1948. I describe how from the 1980s onward research on neutral theory and BCI’s forests have been intertwined, and how during the 2010s, neutral theory matured and began to be integrated into general ecological theory. An overarching theme of my review is that the original motivation of Hubbell’s theory was not to test the neutral assumption (which is false), but rather to test the hypothesis that local communities, such as the tree community in BCI’s 50-ha plot, are primarily dispersal assembled rather than niche assembled. The revival of this hypothesis may also turn out to be the theory’s most enduring legacy.